A No Lose Trading System
From The Trading Desk of Oliver Velez
There are several facts about trading systems that are highly unrecognized by traders. And when they are recognized, they are rarely believed. Let’s look at two of these facts:
1) Your trading system or method does not have to win more than it loses to make a lot of money. Its wins simply must be consistently larger than its losses. Some of the most profitable systems ever created only won about 38% of the time. The losses were greater in number, but the profitable trades were much larger than the losses. Quality is key, not quantity. What’s the moral here? Make sure your system’s average winning trade is at the very least 1.5 times the size of your average losing trade. That means if your average losing trade is $1.00, your average winning trade must be at least $1.50. Many refer to this as the risk to reward ratio. A 1.5 to 1 risk reward is acceptable, but a 3 to 1 risk/reward is even better. This would mean that you could win only 1 out of every three trades and still be in the game, baring commissions, taxes and fees, of course.
2) The way your system selects stocks is less important than how it protects you from big losses. Everyone is overly focused on picks. They’re reading analyst reports, subscribing to newsletters, buying scanning products, attending seminars and listening to Jim Crammer, all in the hope of becoming a better stock picker. I say this focus is lopsided, not wrong but disproportionately idolized. This is not to say that a “method” has no importance. It does, but far more important is how systematic the stop loss portion of trading system is. I’ve always taught that stops are more important than profits and deserve the vast majority of a trader’s attention. The trader who has initiated a trade does nothing to make a stock move in the desired direction. But the trader must always do something if and when the stock moves in the opposite direction. This something is the supreme act. It possesses the greatest importance because it is the sole determinant of how successful one becomes as a trader. Many actually believe the reverse is true; that success relies more on how successful one is at finding winning plays versus how successful one is at cutting losses short. This could not be further from the truth. One can be incredible accurate at finding winning plays. But it only takes one big, unchecked loss to wipe out weeks, months and even years of consistent gains. Many a market hero has been undone by the failure to realize this. And to think that there are some firms in existence today who actually teach would-be traders that stops should never be used. Criminal. That’s the only word that appropriately describes that negligence in my opinion. When stocks (like employees) fail to produce, they should be fired instantly. You may not always be right in the end, but you’ll always live to play another day.
You also need to know when and how to adjust your stops. This is more art than science, admittedly, but the system I outline below can be the basis for a solid trading system that mathematically cannot lose. Yes! You’ve heard me correctly. I’m telling you that if you were to adhere to this system that I’m about to outline or any system close to it, it would be impossible to lose money in the market over time. So sit back and read carefully. What you are about to absorb may just change your trading life…forever.
One of Oliver's No Lose Trading Systems
The below rules create the basic parameters of the trading system. Keep in mind that the numbers I use can be changed to fit your style of trading, but the ratios should remain close to the ones I use. For instance, I may use a 10 cent stop for micro-trading but a swing trader may want to use $1.00 and a core trader $10. The actual number is not as important as the ratio of wins to losses, which you will understand shortly. But I will say that my use of this system and several like it has been applied far more frequently to short-term, intraday, based trading than swing and core. In fact I’ve got several “black boxes” (automated trading algorithms) that automatically trade the market with no human intervention each day. They are responsible for 26 million shares of my firm’s monthly volume and are literally profitable almost every single day. You too can achieve success with the system if you apply it with rigor and discipline.
My last reminder is that the method, by which you select your stocks, while less important than the system itself, will have some bearing on the level of your success. Of course, my elite VCM Traders would use the tactics I’ve taught them in our 2-day Trading Seminar to apply the system to. Are you ready? Here we go.
Rules for Selecting a Universe
1) Select stocks that trade between $25 and $65 per share;
2) Average Daily Volume of each stock should be 2 million shares or better;
3) Maximum Bid/Ask spread should be 3 cents.
1) Select stocks that trade between $25 and $65 per share;
2) Average Daily Volume of each stock should be 2 million shares or better;
3) Maximum Bid/Ask spread should be 3 cents.
The Trading Rules
Initial Stop: Always 20 cents – You must be willing to lose 20 cents on each play, but the goal will be to narrow this 20 cent loss potential rather quickly, as you will see.
Initial Stop: Always 20 cents – You must be willing to lose 20 cents on each play, but the goal will be to narrow this 20 cent loss potential rather quickly, as you will see.
Adjusted Stop: Narrow the initial stop by 10 cents after the stock has moved 10 cents in your favor.
Breakeven Stop: Move stop to breakeven after the stock has moved 20 cents in your favor. Now you’re playing with the house’s (market’s) money. It’s primarily a free trade. So Relax and enjoy!
Minimum Target: 60 cents – This means that a profit can only be taken or locked in if the stock achieves a 60 cent gain or more. It does not mean that profits of 60 cents must be taken. It’s the minimum profit that can be taken. Profits of 59 cents or less are not to be taken. Note: Some traders will decide to take all off the table after a 60 cent gain, others will take part of their position off the table and yet others will continue to let the whole position ride based on the rules below.
Profit Stop 1: Once a 60 cent profit has been achieved, moved stop to protect 30 cents of your profit.
Profit Stop 2: Once a 65 cent profit has been achieved, move stop to protect 60 cents of your profit.
8ma Stop: From here on out, the trader can sit back and use an 8 period moving average (8ma) as a constant moving trailing stop. Any violation of the rising 8ma would be cause to bail on the whole remaining part of the position.
Summary
So there you have it…the near perfect mechanical trading system. Over time, it should yield some nice gains for you, especially if you only play stocks in sync with their 8 and 20 moving averages. This system uses a proper risk reward ratio; a solid time based stop principle, as well as the benefit of a moving average based technique, which as you may know is unrivaled in a strong trending market. Keep in mind that the numbers can be changed or altered up or down, but try not to tamper with the risk/reward ratio built into the system.
So there you have it…the near perfect mechanical trading system. Over time, it should yield some nice gains for you, especially if you only play stocks in sync with their 8 and 20 moving averages. This system uses a proper risk reward ratio; a solid time based stop principle, as well as the benefit of a moving average based technique, which as you may know is unrivaled in a strong trending market. Keep in mind that the numbers can be changed or altered up or down, but try not to tamper with the risk/reward ratio built into the system.
Try it. I dare you to prove to me that this does not work over time. I dare you! Happy Trading!
Oliver, where do you find a screener that will define the spread of only 3 cents on a stock?
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John:
Our stock scanner VCM Scanner Pro (http://www.vcmtrading.com/services_premium.php#scannerPro) has a filter that allows us to search for stocks with a minimum and/or maximum bid/ask spread. I am unaware of any other scanner that does this; but barring software, a quick eyeball look can suffice. After all, one's universe of stocks should be filled with company's that one is familiar with anyway. Not as companies, per se, but as trading vehicles. 20 to 30 stocks that you deal with and look at each day is not overwhelming. Make sure these stocks trade at fairly narrow spreads most of the time and that is enough.
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Oliver,
Do you have a system similar to this one for trading the S&P e mini?
Thanks for sharing your valuable insights. I just purchased your "Trade For Life" Home Study course. Can't wait to view it! Thanks again, John
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Thanks for deciding to enter my world. I'm sure you'll enjoy and be affected positively by the course. This system, John, can be used for anything human beings trade back and forth: stocks, options, bonds, futures, currencies, real estate...cabbage patch dolls, pet rocks, you name it. We trade people, not the underlying things in the hands of those people. And people are the same no matter what they are swapping back and forth between each other. So, e-minis can be used. The most important thing is to select which time frame you want to trade the e-minis on...1 minute, 2-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 60-minute, daily, weekly? Once this is established then it's much easier to come up with the stop amounts nd risk/reward ratios to use. I hope this helps. Happy Trading!
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Hello: I just found your blog and I'm curios since I was not aware you had automatic trading. How does one get involed with this? Do we need to take any particular course of yours? Thanks Carlos
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Hello friend:
Automated trading or blackbox (and greybox) trading as it is called in the industry is not available to our traders yet. I currently have 14 such boxes or algorithms working, trading the markets each day.
In the future, greybox technology will be available to all our traders via our platform, the VCM Trader. I suspect later this year, it will be implemented.
Stay tuned.
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"Trade For Life" Home Study Course. Whats that?? Dont see it on the vcm site
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The Home Study Course is a special offer given by an outside marketing firm, based on a deal I cut with them a few months ago. It is comprised of my book, Strategies for Profiting on Every Trade, my 90-minute dvd, 5 Trading Tactics That Beat the Market and the pdf files that accompany that dvd. These three things are sold by the marketing firm for $99, which is at a much deeper discount than those items can be bought ala carte.
With that said, we will soon have a true Home Study Course that allows traders to take both the 2-day Trade for Life seminar and the 5-day Training in a self-paced format. That product will be out early 2008. Stay tuned!
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Oliver,
I met you at the Money Show in Las Vegas last week. I'm the CPA/Pastor/Former Stockbroker from Atlanta. I'm very interested in doing your 2-day Trade for Life and the 5-day Training Home Study course self-paced format with an assigned coach. When will this be available in 2008? Will this be offered every week or just once a month? Since I'm still employed I will have to work it around my schedule. When do I do I need to pay the associated fee, in order to get the discount mentioned in Las Vegas?
Phillip Carter
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Dear Phillip:
I remember you. What a nice surprise. I'm delighted that you've decided to join our trading team. Our schedule of events are posted through February at: https://www.vcmtrading.com/events.php#. Make sure you include the # sign which does not seem to link here, or simply go to our home page (www.vcmtrading.com) and click on Events to review.
The self-paced will be released early 2008.
Keep in mind that rates to go up on December 1st, so if you can, I'd lock in your event prior to that date. Feel free to contact one of my counselors at info@vcmtrading.com. I hope this helps, and please stay in touch.
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Hi Oliver:
When will the self-paced home study package come out and how much will it cost? I am in bad shape financially at the moment and I cannot afford your regular courses but I know I will do well just starting with the home study and trading the $50,000. Do your cover commodity options in your course or is it only stock trading?
Agatha
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Agatha:
We are in the process of completing our Self-paced On-demand Trade for Life 2-Day Course. It will be broken down into 21 segments, each of which can be purchased and viewed separately or all at once. It will be accompanied by FAQs and numerous quizzes, tests and section exams to ensure that the concepts are being digested properly. Each student will be assigned a VCM Trader Coach to add the human element to the learning process and to help guide them through the entire program.
Upon completion and passing of the final exam of the entire 2-day course, the student will be eligible for the 5-Day Live Trading Lab, which is the part of the training that is required to become a full-fledged VCM Trader, completely funded with a starting capital account of $50,000. The 2-day can be summed up as theory, while the 5-day Lab is live, practical application of the theory. Without the later, proper trading is still highly unlikely, as "knowing" is not the same as "doing." You need them both.
The cost for the self-paced on-demand 2-day course, once available, will be no different from the regular priced ones. The value of the education is no less and the purchase of it still gives the student lifetime repeat/retake rights for all versions of the 2-day (live, online, and self-paced). We expect to have this product launched by mid year, the latest.
As of right now, my team focuses exclusively on trading stocks. The high leverage we enjoy largely eliminates the benefit that is inherent in other financial vehicles.
I truly hope this helps and hope that one day you will be able to join our team.
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What are your 2 and 5 day home study courses going to caot, roughly.
Do you ever sleep?
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I'm assuming you are asking what the self-paced home study courses will cover. They will allow the trader to receive the same instruction that I give in the live courses, right from the comfort of their own homes and at their own pace. The courses will be broken up into chapters with quizzes and section exams. The trader will have to pass the exams for each section before being allowed to move to the next. Each trader will also be assigned a trader coach who will be available to answer any questions.
Upon completion of the full program, the trader will be funded by me with an initial $50,000 trading account. But as you already know, the training and mentoring the trader will receive will never really end. As long as my money is in the trader's care, I will continue to help improve how he trades with it. I mean, that is the only way both the trader and me will make ever increasing amounts of money. I hope this helps.
As for when I sleep...the answer is "rarely." I've been blessed (or cursed) with the physiological need for very little sleep. Only several people out of every one hundred has this condition. I guess I lucked out. When it comes to work I'm blessed, but I'm cursed in other ways; however, in truth, I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll get plenty of sleep when I'm dead. <smile>.
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Cost actually. Also, are you saying that a trader who completes the home study will be eligable for the same trader program as someone who takes the live 5 day course?
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Yes. Of course. What else would the purpose be? My goal is to grow my trading team, not simply provide education. I did that one-dimensional approach of just educating for 12 years already. I'm done with that. It no longer fulfills me.
I am now looking to financially back every one of my students, nurture them, train them, program them to trade. In this way, I create my own partners, and we mutually benefit from our partnership. And while I won't train and educate for free, just as Harvard University won't educate for free, I do guarantee that every student gets the job.
So yes, even those who receive my training in an online format get funded. Any format will do, in fact, because I will ensure that whatever format I choose will get the job done.
I hope this helps.
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where can this be purchased?
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John:
It's your lucky day, because this No Lose System is absolutely FREE. I gave it to you, did I not? Just be disciplined to try and apply it. My gift to you. Happy holidays. <smile>.
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Excellent article would you please describe a similar strategy for core trades?
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Fernando:
The strategy for core trades would not be any different. Just the parameters would change. All you need do is plug in different numbers. Instead of 10 cents, maybe you will use $10. Get it? You have the micro version of the macro version, the little picture of the big one. It's a template. I hope this helps.
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Thanks for another great article. One quick question comes to mind:
You say the stop is "always" .20 cents. If it is in a traders plan to "always" have a stop underneath the most recent support, (which may be only .10 cents), can we substitute those figures accordingly; In other words, are the trade parameters always fixed or relative to the size of the stop-placement?
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Yes. You can change them, but just remember, when you change one parameter, all of them must be changed in the right proportion. It's a fixed template in that regard. I hope this helps. Happy Trading!
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With this trading formula and the 20 cent stop, what time frame are you primarly focused on? I understand the ratios can be adjusted to work in any time frame, but with the 20 cent initial stop and 60 cent initial target is that a 5 minute time frame or what.
Thanks.
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Yes, I had the 5-minute and perhaps the 15-minute time frames in mind when writing this. But as you correctly point out, the template can be adjusted for anytime frame. Good question. Happy Trading.
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Best possible advice. It's the big losses that kill traders, not the lack of gains.
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I could not have said this better myself.
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Why do you advocate using simple moving averages over the exponential or 'weighted' variety and what effect does it have on trading results?
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xoxo:
In all my 21 years of trading (21 years this December actually), I've simply (no pun intended here) found no evidence that the sexier varieties of moving averages work any better than the simple one. Exponential, triangular, weighted, etc....these are all academic attempts to make something perfect that cannot be made perfect. But with that said, some traders are so hung up on what they've been told about the superiority of one version over another that I've told them to use the one they like. In the end it won't matter very much. Moving averages, like all other "location" items are general areas, not specific prices. They are more like fences that the bulls and bears can lean on, not glass floors and ceilings that shatter at the first point of contact. So in the end, the area of the 20ema will be fairly close to the area of the 20sma, most of the time. So use it if you're sold on it. There are more important things to really zero in on.
I hope this helps. Happy Trading!
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Oliver,
so you have this system, it works, you have back tested it you know its profitable but you still do not follow it, you try to outsmart or sabotage your efforts how do you go about breaking this cycle!
thanks
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John:
You ask a very important question, a critical one for many, in fact. Your question strikes at the very core of another question, which is, "Is trading an activity meant for me?" Sadly, trading can't be done correctly by everyone. In fact, as I've always reminded people, most will never be able to do it correctly. And while that does not make them bad people, it does make them losers forever when it comes to this activity. I think one of the best gifts one can receive is the knowledge that something they really want to do is not meant for them. Otherwise a state of denial sets in and in the end that's far more destructive than anything else one can imagine. Denial has the potential to wreak major havoc with people's lives.
Here is the main point, John. You can get the proper education. That today is for sale, not from many because many don't really know themselves, but there are a few reliable sources to learn how to trade more intelligently than the average novice. Through some level of experience, you can also gain the wisdom and knowledge that are necessary outgrowths of the proper education. But what no one can do for you...what all the seminars and books in the world cannot do for you is give you a disciplined make-up. Some people, despite knowing what to do, will simply NEVER do it! You can't learn to cook and simply not cook and hope for to have nice meals. Life, real life, does not work that way. So if a trader finds that no matter what he tries, he simply can't do what he already KNOWS is the right thing to do, than perhaps..just perhaps this is not for him.
With that said, I find that working with almost ridiculous size (lot sizes like 10 and 20 shares) helps the trader hone some level of discipline skills. I also find that a heavy reliance on technology can help a trader increase his level of discipline. Also, being around disciplined traders, trading with them and for them can do wonders. This is what I attempt to do with my traders.
I hope this helps.
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Hi Oliver,
How often do you use your market timing tactics to position your "swing" trades as outlined in your Master Day Trading book? I'm in the process of reading this book, but wasn't sure if the market timing tactics should be used for both intraday trading as well as swing trades.
Thanks.
Joe
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Market internals have a much greater importance when intra-day trading, but do have some relevance when swing and core trading. The Volatility Index, the TICK and TRIN, along with things like New Highs/New Lows, and Short Interest can provide some guidance, but keep in mind that these are secondary to proper trade selection. One can trade successfully without referring to market internals, but the reverse can never be true. The best market timer can be a loser if his stock selection skills are weak. I hope this helps.
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Hello Sir:
you mentioned in "Rules for Selecting a Universe"
#1) "Select stocks that trade between $25 and $65 per share"
Does this apply to Level 1 & 2 VCM traders? or should we be looking perhaps for a lower cost stock that perhaps wiggles about a bit less than the possible initial .20 stoploss?
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Yes, this price range of $25 to $65 does apply more to Level 1 through Level 3 traders. But keep in mind that I'm not a very big fan of trading stocks much lower in price than $15. The volatility we look for is usually not there consistently enough for our style of trading. Volatility is a good thing for traders, as I'm sure you realize.
Getting wiggled out of stocks is fine. It's an inescapable part of the game. Never look to eliminate that. Just learn to do the right thing when it does happen and the market will automatically take care of the gains for you.
I hope this helps.
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Oliver,
This sounds like a fantastic system. But when you are stopped out, do you reverse and go the other way? Or is each trade entered based upon the criteria you taught us in your training?
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I'm really not a big fan of an "automatic" stop and reverse strategy; however, some failed trading patterns are excellent low odds stop-and-reverse types. One just has to know which ones are good to apply the reverse strategy and which set-ups are not.
Breakouts/downs are good stop and reverse patterns as are several of the one bar strategies you've been taught. But for the most part use the strategies I've taught you to base your entries from.
I hope this helps.
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Dear Oliver,
First thank you very much for this wonderful pearl of wisdom.
I understand the ratio concept of your formula. Have you given and thought to the percentage ratio of your formula?
A .20 stop or a .60 profit in a $15.00 stock would not seem to coincide with the same ratio of a $95.00 stock.
So, my question is that in order for your formula to remain consistent would a percentage based rule be prudent and if so, what would that percentage be?
Thank you in advance.
Bobby S.
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Dear Bobby:
Of course I've given it thought. You point is a valid one and is precisely why I made it clear that I was using an "example" when I used those numbers. As long as you keep the same ratios between your numbers, you can adjust the plan to any level based on price range.
So, a .20 cent stop or a .60 cent profit can become a .05 cent stop or a .15 cent profit. On the flip side, you can have a $2 stop or a $6 profit, or even a $10 stop or a $30 profit. It's the ratio that counts, not the actual numbers in the ratio. Get it?
With that said, I'm not a big fan of percentages. They are too "academic", cumbersome and complex. Ratios like 1 to 2 or 1 to 3 work the best in my opinion.
I hope this helps. Happy Trading !
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Hi oliver, in the hopes of increased accuracy, i was wondering if it would be acceptable to adhere to a plan that took all profits at 2 times risk vs your 3 times risk amount. it seems to me even though you often leave money on the table, you are less subjected to paper gains vanishing when the stock retreats.what do you think? thankyou! roger pfeiffer
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Dear Roger:
The short answer to your question is "yes." Taking or using a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio is very acceptable, as long as the accuracy level is sufficiently high to warrant it. In fact, many of my top traders actually use an "inverse" ratio, meaning their average win is much smaller than their average loss, but the key is they very infrequently experience net losses of any significance. Many retail traders find this hard to comprehend, but know that there are achievable levels of consistency that rarely see net losses on a regular basis. This is what you are shooting for.
So yes, by all means, use a 2 to 1, even a 1 to 1 risk to reward ratio, but make sure the accuracy is solidly there before you make the move.
I hope this helps.
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Dear Oliver:
This is a great day for me as I came across one of your newsletters offering your Trade for Life hone-study course. I am new to trading but I am very much intersted in learning and becoming one of your traders. I have signed up for the free 2-hour course on Janaury 4. How effective will the home course and 2-hour free cource be to reach my goal of becoming one of your traders? I was wondering whether you have and special discounts on the 2-day and 5-day training programs.
Thanks.
Agatha
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Agatha:
Welcome. The enthusiasm I sense in your comment will go a long way toward your growing success as a trader. I love it!
The home study course was designed to give an appetizer portion of my education to get the beginning trader started off on the right foot by putting in place the right foundation. The 2-day Trade for Life Seminar and the 5-Day Live Trading Lab complete the formal education process for our traders and upon graduation of those two events, each trader gets funded with $50,000 to trade. As they progress through our 12-Step Trader Advancement Program (see http://www.vcmtrading.com/advancement.php) they gain access to higher and higher amounts or capital and receive higher and higher percentages of the profits.
As for discounts, the answer is yes, we do offer discounts to the education in the form of an early bird rate (EBR). By signing up for an event 3 weeks or more in advance, you enjoy a reduced rate.
But remember, Agatha, our philosophy is simple: One Fee for Life! Trade for Life! Should not an education you invested in pay you for life? Yes. And ours truly does. One educational fee is paid, and thereafter the trader is educated, nurtured, supported, developed, and mentored for life. access to all we do is free for life. Access to services, newsletters, chat rooms, future seminars, events, you name it. Never will there be another cost for anything. None of this nonsense practiced by other firms, "but now that you've completed this, you need our Master's Program and that will cost an additional fortune...blah..blah..blah." Your cost, once out of the way, will pay you forever.
So enjoy the free event today, Agatha. Make sure you say hello. I can sense it. You'll be one of my traders soon
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I have adapted this system to my style of trading and it has changed me from negative to positive. "MY" style of trading is different then yours but it fits me perfectly. By adding this into my trading it has reduced the amount of trades I do and has increased the percentage of winning trades. Thank you very much for this blog and hope you continue to add small but very powerful tidbits of information to the site.
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Hello my friend:
I'm excited, although not entirely surprised with your sudden move to consistent profitability. The methods of trading I teach are derived from 21 years of experience as a trader and 16 years as a trainer of traders. Their power lies deeply in the fact that they are simple strategies to employ.
What's more, these trading tactics and strategies are designed to help the trader exploit several market events that are not only repetitive, but timeless in the sense that they will always occur in markets...forever. Far too many trading systems quickly become obsolete and ineffective because they are based on an anomaly in the market that occurs in one environment or period, but disappears entirely in another.
So, stay tuned and may the success you've experienced so far pale in comparison to the glow of your future success.
Happy Trading!
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Thanks, Oliver. Yes, I am excited about this opportunity and going to be one of your traders soon. I now look forward to what I will learn trading stock options. See you at the free event at 2:15 PM. Keep up the excellent work!!
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I hope you enjoyed the free event. I went over the time by 45 minutes or so, but well worth the extra time, I'd say. We had 675 people registered, one of the biggest to date. Again, I hope it was educational and informative for you.
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hi
im writing from Venezuela
i remember you when you said "i must learn Spanish" when you open a office in Caracas 2 or 3 years ago
im writing because i need to know more about your 2 day learning system and
on the other hand can i work whit you proprietary trader system living in Venezuela or if you still have office in Venezuela to get there
thanks a lot
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Wow! What a long time ago that was. And yes, I once did have a small office in Caracas, Venezuela, but much longer than 2 or 3 years ago. It was more like 8 or 9 years ago. How time flies.
I'd be delighted to put you in touch with one of our traders so that you can get all your questions answered about our training programs. While we have many traders in South America, most are concentrated in Columbia, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. I'm afraid we don't have a concentration of traders in Venezuela. But perhaps the start of one will begin with you.
Please e-mail info@vcmtrading.com to get more info on our Trade for Life Trading Program. Good luck and Happy Trading.
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